Is Britain actually inching again in direction of the EU?

On a heat morning earlier this month, a gaggle of Metropolitan Police diplomatic safety officers sat in an anteroom off the ornate entrance corridor in London’s Lancaster House, sipping tea and nibbling chocolate biscuits, whereas upstairs a core group of European politicians mentioned the way forward for European cooperation.

It was an apt setting: in all places you look in Lancaster House, there may be proof of the lengthy, entangled histories of the UK and Europe. The double sweep of its grand staircase intentionally echoes the Palace of Versailles. Queen Victoria sat in these rooms listening to Frederic Chopin play the piano in 1848. Tony Blair hosted Russian President Putin right here for an power summit in 2003.

The necessary points on the agenda on the Lancaster House assembly, which was hosted by the Foreign Secretary David Lammy, included the newest developments within the conflict in Ukraine, Europe’s response to make sure the continent’s safety, and – for the primary time since Brexit – a summit between the UK and the European Union, which can happen on 19 May.

The British authorities believes it is a vital second.

Before Brexit, British prime ministers would journey to Brussels 4 instances a yr or extra for summits with the heads of the EU’s establishments and its 27 member states. The haggling would go on late into the night time. After Brexit these massive summits stopped.

Now, the Labour authorities, elected final yr on a manifesto that promised “an improved and ambitious relationship with our European partners”, envisages new and common interactions with the EU. Monday’s marks the primary.

Sir Keir Starmer will host probably the most senior EU leaders to launch a brand new “partnership”.

Pedro Serrano, the EU ambassador to London, has described it because the “culmination of enhanced contacts at the highest levels since the July 2024 [UK] elections”. But what is going to it quantity to?

Is what’s coming a “surrender summit” because the Conservatives warn; “the great British sellout” undoing bits of Brexit that Reform UK concern; or “a huge opportunity” the UK could also be about to squander, as Liberal Democrats say? Or may or not it’s an instance of how, in Sir Keir Starmer’s phrases, “serious pragmatism defeats performative politics” by delivering sensible issues that can enhance folks’s lives?

In these lengthy, drama-filled nights of 2020, when the then-prime minister Boris Johnson was negotiating Brexit, the opportunity of a Security and Defence Partnership was mentioned. But the UK’s important precedence was diverging from Brussels. So nothing was agreed – a notable omission, some assume.

Now a brand new UK-EU safety pact has been labored on for months, the plan is for it to be the centrepiece of what is agreed.

Kaja Kallas, the EU’s international coverage chief, who’s overseeing negotiations, was on the early talks at Lancaster House. “Our relationship has had some difficulties,” she instructed me, however “considering what is going on in the world […] we need to move forward with this partnership.”

Yet some assume the UK mustn’t seize this outstretched hand.

“The cornerstone of our defence is Nato,” Alex Burghart, a Conservative frontbencher, instructed the Commons this week. “We know of no reason why Nato is insufficient.”

Reform UK’s deputy chief Richard Tice has his personal view. “There’s no value at all,” he argues. “We do not want to be constrained by a bungling top-down bureaucratic military structure. Our defence is guaranteed by Nato.”

The authorities fires again on that time, arguing {that a} partnership will by no means undermine Nato; relatively it can complement it, they are saying, as a result of it can stretch to areas past defence, just like the safety of our economies, infrastructure, power provides, even migration and transnational crime.

Some business specialists additionally imagine {that a} safety pact may enhance the UK economic system. Kevin Craven, chief government of ADS Group, a UK commerce affiliation that represents aerospace, defence and safety corporations, is amongst them.

Take, for instance, the SAFE (Security Action For Europe) programme that’s being arrange by the EU, aiming to offer as much as €150bn (£126bn) in loans for brand new tasks. If the UK strikes a safety partnership with the EU, then British weapons producers may doubtlessly entry a few of that money.

“There is a huge amount of interest from European partners,” says Mr Craven. “One of the challenges for defence companies in the last couple of years, since the advent of Ukraine, is being able to scale up their own capacity to meet demand.” He estimates the UK may enhance the EU’s defence output by a fifth.

The Liberal Democrat’s Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Calum Miller, equally believes {that a} safety pact is a big alternative for the British defence business – however, he provides, “as importantly, it’s a new strategic opportunity for the UK to be part of that ongoing conversation about how we arm as a continent”.

Others level out that the UK has already been working with the EU on defence ever since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – at Nato, and most just lately by way of the so-called Coalition of the Willing.

So, in apply, does it make big quantities of distinction to the UK’s place in Europe?

No, argues Jill Rutter, a former senior civil servant who’s now a senior fellow on the UK in a Changing Europe assume tank. “Because relations [on defence] have already been improving quite a long way.”

Some of these engaged on the partnership, nevertheless, argue that it’ll set in practice new methods for the UK to have interaction and cooperate with its neighbours.

More contentious is the UK’s want to signal what’s referred to as a ‘veterinary’ deal to take away some border checks on foods and drinks. Nick Thomas-Symonds, the Cabinet Office minister main these negotiations, instructed the Commons this week that the target to decrease foods and drinks prices is within the manifesto, so there’s a mandate for it.

Inside the meals business, requires reform have been rising. Julianne Ponan, whose agency Creative Nature makes vegan snack bars, exports to 18 nations however solely a small proportion goes to the EU. She says that is due to the paperwork and inspections since Brexit.

One of her staff needed to carry samples in her baggage on a passenger flight to Spain for a gathering to ensure the meals wasn’t held up on the border, she says.

“I think this will open up huge opportunities for businesses like mine.”

But a veterinary deal might carry political hazard. It would require the UK to align a few of its guidelines on foods and drinks with EU ones, and transfer in-step with Brussels over time. And these guidelines are topic to oversight by EU courts.

“I call it the surrender summit,” says Andrew Griffith, the Conservative Shadow Business and Trade Secretary. Under this deal the UK would lose “our freedom to set our own rules”, he provides.

The Conservatives say they “fought long and hard” to “take back control of our laws, our borders, our money” – and that this could not now be reversed.

Reform UK has not held again in its language: “We think prepare for the Great British sell out. That’s the bottom line, and it will be dressed up as a reset,” Richard Tice says.

“Why would you want to reset and get closer to a patently failing economic model? The EU is struggling even more than we are. We should be diverging as fast as we can away from that.”

But Labour’s Thomas-Symonds dismisses these views as a “rehash of the arguments of the past”.

On the opposite finish of the spectrum is the accusation that Sir Keir is way too cautious. Calum Miller of the Liberal Democrats says he is aware of of companies “gnashing their teeth in frustration that they just can’t exploit opportunities to work with and trade with Europe”.

His social gathering desires the UK to discover a Customs Union with the EU. It would make transferring items simpler, however imply we could not signal our personal commerce offers.

David Henig, a former senior commerce negotiator, has been speaking to either side “hoping to help, to sort of navigate them in”.

“The summit is a step forward, not a step change,” he says, “A slight deepening of the trade ties, rather than something dramatically new.”

A deal on foods and drinks checks would ship little or no, he believes, as a result of foods and drinks is such a restricted a part of commerce. “If you were, for example, aligning UK and EU rules on industrial products, you’d get a much bigger economic impact”.

Jill Rutter thinks {that a} veterinary deal wouldn’t show “economically earth shattering” – but when it goes nicely, she argues that it may present “early proof of concept” for additional UK-EU cooperation.

After Brexit, many British fishermen have been disenchanted when Boris Johnson’s authorities agreed to let EU boats proceed a lot as earlier than, taking vital catches from UK waters. Those preparations expire subsequent yr. The EU desires them prolonged.

David Davis who, as Brexit minister, led a number of the authentic negotiations for the UK, instructed me fishing was “totemic” for Brussels. London conceded too simply, he thinks.

“Europeans got what they wanted first, and then we had a haggle from a weak position.”

So he provides, “If I was giving advice to the government, I would say, tough it out” and use fishing as a lever to hunt concessions.

But, because the UK discovered earlier than, Brussels has playing cards to play. Much of the fish caught by British fishermen is offered to patrons on the Continent and the UK wants entry to that market.

Some EU coastal states, like France and Denmark, are ready to drive a tough discount, demanding that London concedes on fishing rights in return for issues it desires. Early on, even signing the Security Partnership was being linked to settlement on a fishing deal. The haggling shall be powerful.

And lastly, there’s an concept that has prompted a lot curiosity in latest months: a youth mobility deal, by way of which under-30s from the UK and EU may reside and work in one another’s nations.

For a very long time the federal government mentioned there have been “no plans” for such a deal – however earlier this month they modified course, with Labour’s Thomas-Symonds saying that “A smart, controlled youth mobility scheme would of course have benefits for our young people”.

It’s possible that will imply very restricted numbers allowed to enter the UK, and solely with a visa, for a restricted time.

Under these circumstances, ministers hope it will not inflate web migration numbers. It’s removed from what the EU would love.

The UK already has comparable schemes with 13 nations, together with Australia, New Zealand and Japan.

“When we are comfortable having those relationships, why are we so averse to having it with our nearest neighbours?” Calum Miller asks, “It just doesn’t really make sense”.

Paula Surridge, a professor of political sociology at Bristol University, argues that public views on immigration are extra nuanced than many individuals assume. “Voters care most about what they perceive as illegal migration – small boat crossings and so on,” she says, “People coming here to study or to work, particularly young people, are not a particular cause for concern” for many.

“There will definitely be a group of voters that are upset [about potential deals], but they were never going to vote Labour.”

Of those that backed Labour in 2024, she provides, about three quarters beforehand voted Remain within the Brexit referendum. The political danger to the federal government of signing pacts with the EU is “smaller than it appears”, she provides.

Conservative pollster Lord Hayward is extra cautious – and is worried {that a} deal might pose a “bear trap” for the federal government if it is seen as offering free motion to younger Europeans. “It will provide serious difficulties for them to come to an agreement on something which could easily be portrayed as EU membership 2.0.”

Even earlier than Sir Keir’s upcoming summit on Monday, his opponents are elevating that spectre.

“All of his muscle memory has been to get closer to the European political union,” says Mr Griffith. “I am worried about our prime minister, with that baggage, with those preconceived ideas, […] trying to negotiate a better deal with the EU.”

Richard Tice says his social gathering may merely undo any offers with the EU. “If I’m right about our fears, and we win the next general election, we will just reverse the lot. The whole lot.”

But Mr Thomas-Symonds is of the view that Monday will present the federal government is “not returning to the Customs Union, Single Market, or Freedom of Movement”, all pink traces it has pledged to not cross.

Instead will probably be about “making Brexit work in the interests of the British people”.

Back at Lancaster House, the politicians have moved on, heading to extra conferences in Albania and Turkey to grapple with the problems going through the continent. But in a quiet hallway in the home is a portray from the 1850s of the Duke of Wellington inspecting troops in London’s Hyde Park.

In it, he sits on a black stallion, elevating his white-feathered hat to salute the cavalry – a tribute to the prime minister and navy hero who defeated Napoleon on the Battle of Waterloo.

The upcoming summit will not be as momentous an occasion within the UK’s sophisticated historical past with Europe. But a contemporary British chief about to plunge into the fray of European politics may pause for thought right here – maybe, for only a second.

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