Senedd election 'could possibly be seismic for Welsh politics', knowledgeable says

You have to return greater than 100 years, to earlier than 1922, for an election the place Labour was not dominating Welsh politics.

Rooted within the industrial heritage of the nation which was as soon as the house of the UK’s first Labour MP, Keir Hardie, the celebration has beat all others in Wales in each main Westminster election ever since.

Labour has all the time been the most important celebration in Cardiff Bay too, and has gained each election for the Welsh Parliament.

But for the primary time, the outlook for Welsh Labour on the subsequent Senedd election on May 7 2026 is way much less clear.

Led by Eluned Morgan, it faces a battle to carry on to the reigns of the Welsh authorities, and the sway it has held over Welsh politics.

Polls have proven Labour neck and neck with two events – the pro-independence Plaid Cymru, and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.

But a survey printed this week advised Plaid Cymru was pulling forward, with Labour falling behind Farage.

Both Plaid and Reform are hoping they’ll leapfrog Labour and turn out to be the most important group within the Senedd, as are the Welsh Conservatives, who’re polling behind the opposite three.

A brand new voting system means the following Senedd could possibly be cut up between about 4 events of an identical dimension, elevating questions on precisely how the following Welsh authorities could possibly be introduced collectively.

A senior Tory has stated a coalition within the subsequent parliament is “nailed on”, and there may be discuss amongst some about whether or not events would want to share the highest job of first minister.

The Welsh Parliament, or Senedd Cymru, is what we now name the establishment arrange because the National Assembly in 1999.

Whoever can command management of the parliament kinds the Welsh authorities – the ministers which run the companies Westminster determined handy over to Cardiff Bay, together with the NHS.

While it has by no means gained a majority, Labour has led each single authorities since 1999, with the help of Plaid and the Lib Dems.

The potential for a shake-up within the Senedd is partly all the way down to plans to broaden the variety of politicians there from 60 to 96 – the brainchild of former First Minister Mark Drakeford and former Plaid Cymru chief Adam Price.

As effectively as extra politicians, the brand new parliament is prone to higher mirror the proportion of votes gained by every celebration – extra so than the combined system used up till now.

This is necessary when it’s thought of in opposition to polls that recommend Welsh voters are divided.

Two latest ones – from Survation and Beaufort Research – have put Labour forward of Plaid and Reform however solely simply.

But a ballot by ITV Wales and Cardiff University carried out in late April positioned Plaid on 30%, with Reform behind on 25% and Labour on 18% – a historic low. The Conservatives have been positioned at 13%, the Lib Dems 7% and the Greens 5%.

All latest polling for Labour on Senedd voting intention is decrease than how the celebration carried out on the final normal election, the place it acquired 37% of the vote.

Cardiff University politics knowledgeable Prof Richard Wyn Jones stated the earlier combined proportional and first-past-the-post system helped Labour win round 50% of the seats in Wales with “a third of the vote”.

He stated elections in each Wales and Scotland subsequent yr would be the “most high-profile test for the Starmer administration”.

“It would be utterly seismic if they are not the largest party in Wales,” he informed BBC Wales.

Prof Wyn Jones spoke earlier than Tuesday’s ballot was printed – as did everybody else on this article. He stated Labour’s possibilities of coming first shouldn’t be written off.

“But even if Labour is only barely ahead, that would be seismic because it would mean the Labour group in the Senedd is essentially not much bigger than the current Labour group in the Senedd, and the Senedd would be 36 seats bigger,” he stated.

So, what could possibly be behind all of it?

The post-pandemic interval has been powerful for Welsh Labour – plunged into disaster over the donation of £200,000 from a person convicted of illegally dumping waste to its now-former chief, Vaughan Gething.

The row uncovered splits throughout the Labour group of 30 MSs. Despite Welsh Labour having a landslide normal election consequence, a number of Welsh ministers resigned to pressure Gething’s ouster, prompting the rise of Morgan as first minister.

Even earlier than Drakeford determined to step down in late 2023, triggering the management contest that Gething gained, Labour MSs had been arguing over transport insurance policies, together with the default 20mph velocity restrict, whereas the federal government has been fighting lengthy waits within the Welsh NHS.

Former Labour particular advisor turned lobbyist Cathy Owens, of Cavendish Cymru, partly blamed the management disaster and elements at a UK degree.

Or, as she places it: “As soon as Labour won power at UK level… everybody realised that Keir Starmer wasn’t the most exciting leader we’ve had and then Labour had to make lots of difficult decisions.”

NHS waits and the controversial 20mph velocity restrict have been all the time among the many high three points relayed on the doorstep on the normal election, in keeping with a well-connected Welsh Labour activist.

They stated a mixture of Welsh and UK points have been at play, however argued that the Welsh authorities “got complacent”.

The activist blamed the “way” the 20mph velocity restrict was delivered – “it told voters we weren’t listening to them and we were essentially lecturing them”.

“I agree with the desired outcomes of the policy, but you can’t treat voters like that,” they stated.

Alun Davies, Labour Blaenau Gwent MS, acknowledged the general public was “frustrated with politics” however stated: “Labour remains the party that probably most people in Wales feel represents their own values.”

The politician, who’s concerned within the manufacturing of the celebration’s manifesto, stated: “Eluned has got the power to transform Welsh Labour’s fortunes during an election campaign.

“She could be very straight-talking – what you see is what you get.”

Cathy Owens said the current first minister needed two things to get to 30% of the vote or more, “considered one of which is to scale back ready instances”.

For the second thing, Ms Owens said Morgan needed help from her party colleagues in the UK government – “some funding, or some further funding” over and above what is automatically provided through the existing Barnett formula system, which is largely based on population.

“Now, that’s proving extra of a sticky wicket,” she said. “There has been no proof of a win thus far on that”.

The relationship between Welsh and Westminster Labour has become a big part of the story of Morgan’s time as Welsh Labour leader.

She has been increasingly keen to distance herself from Sir Kier Starmer – on Tuesday she gave a speech where she was willing to call out his government, should it take decisions that “hurt” Welsh communities.

One party hoping to benefit from the turn in Labour’s fortunes is Plaid Cymru.

The left-leaning party has long struggled to beat its strong showing in the first assembly election of 1999 when it won almost 29% of the vote, but the splintering of British politics has presented Plaid with an opportunity.

Party leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has been presenting himself as a first minister in waiting, while the party has published plans on health and the economy it said it would enact if it formed the next Welsh government.

Unlike their political cousins in Scotland, the SNP, Plaid has never won a Welsh election and came third last time round.

It took part in a short-lived coalition with Labour between 2007 and 2011, and helped Labour govern more recently in the form of the co-operation deal which ended in summer 2024.

“We’re not getting too carried away with the polls,” Plaid’s Senedd party chairman Llyr Gruffydd said. “But the polls do inform an excellent story for us.”

“We will clearly be highlighting the necessity for change. It’s a drained authorities.”

He said the party will face a challenge in helping “individuals realise that it is a totally different electoral system. Every single vote counts – there is not going to be a wasted vote”.

It was put to Gruffydd that it was difficult for Plaid to be seen as anti-establishment when it had been involved in helping Labour govern. “We will not shrink back from the truth that we have been punching above our weight… and nonetheless attaining parts of our manifesto,” he said. “Imagine what we might do if we have been in authorities.”

One party hoping to make their big entrance into Welsh politics is Farage’s Reform UK.

The party has polled closely to Labour and Plaid Cymru and came second in 13 seats at the last general election. While it has five MPs in England, and some councillors in Wales, it has no-one at Senedd at present.

It is celebrating its recent English local election successes, where it made big gains, won control of 10 councils, two mayors and a by-election from Labour.

Pointing to who the party is in Wales is difficult – it is yet to decide who will stand for them at the next election, or who might act as a figurehead.

They are not starting from scratch – Farage’s previous party UKIP had a short-lived stint in the Senedd after it won seven AMs in 2017.

At least one of their former AMs is hoping to become a Reform MS – Caroline Jones. She is hoping to stand for Reform in the seat of Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg – which covers Bridgend and Vale of Glamorgan.

Opponents accuse Reform of simply being a protest party, something that would be denied by Jones. She told BBC Wales that another former UKIP Senedd politician, and one-time Tory MP and ex-Abolish the Assembly AM, Mark Reckless, was working with a team on policy for the Senedd.

“At the second, there’s a lot frustration among the many public – we’re providing one thing totally different.”

Jones added: “You should have a celebration that is consultant of the individuals, versus simply representing their very own pursuits.”

UKIP’s time in the Senedd was characterised by two changes in leadership, rows, and splits. At one point there were more UKIP AMs who had been leader than had not – including Jones herself.

“The Reform celebration is united,” she said. “There are hardly any arguments in any respect, and something that folks disagree on.”

Other parties may try to capitalise on Farage’s relationship with the controversial US president Donald Trump to galvanise opposition to Reform.

Jones said that was not a negative: “If we have particular hyperlinks with America, then I believe it is to be capitalised on.”

Asked if she thought the party needed a Welsh figurehead, she said: “That’s above my pay grade.”

The Conservatives have a comparatively new chief within the Senedd – Darren Millar, who took over late final yr after a row over the management of Andrew RT Davies.

Under Millar the party has tried to present itself as a serious alternative to Labour, with the Senedd leader keen to show he can be the next first minister and not simply an opposition force.

But the Tories are still in the shadow of a disastrous general election, where the party went from having won 14 seats in the 2019 vote to zero. Recently it has been polling in fourth place. It came second in the Senedd election in 2021.

Samuel Kurtz, chairman of the Tory group in the Senedd, said he was excited by the prospect of the election and the “alternatives of a unique political panorama come 8 May 2026”.

The MS for Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire said: “We must put ahead a constructive imaginative and prescient for what Wales might appear like. We have had 25 years of the identical celebration in cost, the identical authorities, and a tried and examined methodology of just about attempting the identical factor.

“It’s saying, look, this is what we’re for. We’re for a stronger economy, we’re for the ability for families to have choice over certain things like education, we’re for agriculture, we’re for tourism.”

He added: “What we’ve really done with Darren is really hunker down as to what is our USP as Welsh Conservatives, what are we for… rather than just saying we are against the 20mph speed limit for example, or we’re against the tourism tax.”

Asked why he thought the Welsh Conservatives have been struggling in polls, former Senedd Tory adviser Anthony Pickles stated: “Because the national party is still so involved in trying to work out its future strategy, its very difficult for the Welsh Conservatives to be diverging, and creating their own brand proposition”.

Smaller events are considered at an obstacle within the new system – with specialists suggesting events want 13% to fifteen% to win seats.

That is to not say they will not strive – with the Greens amongst those that shall be hoping to enter the Welsh Parliament for the primary time.

The Liberal Democrats, who gained one regional seat on the final Senedd election and one on the final normal election, are hoping to win extra.

Welsh Lib Dem chief Jane Dodds beforehand informed the BBC: “We’ll have gold everywhere. Look at what we did in England [at the last general election].

“No-one thought we might win 72 seats. The outcomes have been coming in quick and livid that evening and I reckon it’s going to be like that subsequent May as effectively.”

It is early days, but the prospect of the electorate being split four ways or more raises questions about how the next government could be formed.

Politicians can be reluctant to talk about the topic with 12 months to go, but for Labour, you would assume a deal with the Conservatives or Reform would be unthinkable. Ministers have instead worked with Plaid and the Lib Dems in the past.

Plaid have ruled out working with Reform, but not Labour or the Tories.

The Conservative’s Kurtz declined to talk about who the party might work with, but said the likelihood of a coalition is “nailed on – it will should be a coalition. No one celebration will attain the brink of governing on their very own”.

Plaid’s Gruffydd said a rotating first ministership – similar to how the coalition running the Irish government has operated with rotating prime ministers – “could possibly be on the agenda”.

“It will depend on the arithmetic,” he said, suggesting it could be discussed if there are “two events completely on the similar form of degree”.

But Ms Owens said if Labour held at 27% as in some recent polls, you are “extra prone to have a Labour first minister”, with the party a few seats or more ahead of Plaid.

Prof Wyn Jones also argued the upheaval in geopolitics could play a role.

It could not be predicted, he argued, whether something happening worldwide could make people feel more positive about Labour.

The expert added: “This is such a vastly unsure time that every thing that we’re saying must be caveated.”